Sunday, September 03, 2006

“Buster” is right

[Get it?]

Were the season to end tomorrow, Buster Olney would vote for Jermaine Dye for AL MVP. Worse candidates (namely, Derek Jeter) will likely receive first-place votes, but my issues with Mr. Olney are more particular.
The player that Jermaine Dye has become is the player he once was.
AHHH make it stop. This sentence hurts.
Late in the 2001 season, he drove in runs the way he does now, hit for power, performed like a leader. But in the playoffs against the Yankees that year, Dye fouled a ball off his left leg and crushed a bone, and that MVP-type player disappeared.

"It took him a long time to come back," Oakland general manager Billy Beane said yesterday. "What he was then, in the second half of the season, was unbelievable." What Dye is now is incredible. This week, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen shook up his lineup, moving Dye up to the No. 3 spot, dropping Jim Thome to fourth and Paul Konerko to fifth. The reason for doing this, Guillen explained, is because Dye has more speed, and while batting behind Thome and Konerko, Dye is sometimes roadblocked on the bases.
So far the evidence for Dye being the league's MVP: he has come back from an injury sustained FIVE years ago [this has nothing to do with value, plus it's been FIVE YEARS]; his old GM and his current manager like him.

The shit about being roadblocked is great. In his career Dye has 41 SB, 21 CS. Since the breakeven point is around 70-75%, at his career clip he's actually more valuable to the White Sox when (those assholes!) Thome and Konerko and roadblocking him. In fairness, he's 7-for-10 this year. Whoopdee-fucking-doo.
But Guillen could have made the move entirely because of Dye's hitting ability. The guy is an RBI machine right now. At a time when the White Sox pitching has been inconsistent, sometimes more of a problem than a solution, Dye has been the anchor to the team. Chicago played 29 games in the month of August, and Dye drove in runs in 18 of those, including eight multi-RBI games. He drove in 30 runs in August.
Jermaine Dye:
2006 to date: 0.393 OBP, 0.646 SLG
July 2006: 0.393 OBP, 0.708 SLG, 96 AB
August 2006: 0.390 OBP, 0.682 SLG, 110 AB

A stronger argument is that he's been very good at the game of baseball in the second half of the season, assuming (as you do, Buster) that it matters at what stage of the season the White Sox earn their wins. Dye's been slugging the shit out of the ball, fine, but what distinguished August from the other months is that more people were on base (sometimes roadblocking, no doubt) while he was at the plate. RsBI is not a very good way of measuring how good at baseball is Jermaine Dye, nor anyone else.
"He's a production guy," a scout said yesterday. "He flourishes in a style where he attacks the baseball, rather than taking a lot of pitches. When you get right down to it, runs and RBI are the most important stats in baseball, and he's one of the best at that. He is healthy, he is hitting the ball the other way better than he did earlier in his career, and now he's got power to all fields."
Wait, that's it? No more numbers? You're back to quotes from people who think Jermaine Dye is, like, really neat? And forget managers; now it's a scout who thinks runs and RBI are the most important stats in baseball?!?!?!?! WHAT ABOUT BATTING AVERAGE, HAIRSTYLE, AND NUMBER OF CHILDREN?!?!?!?! Idiot.

OH, and this is actually kinda funny, David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are beating Jermaine Dye in the following categories: runs; RBI. By at least ten. Both players. In both categories. Like, “X's Y total is at least ten higher than Jermaine Dye's Y total” is true when: X=David Ortiz, Y=runs; X=David Ortiz, Y=RBI; X=Travis Hafner, Y=runs; X=Travis Hafner, Y=RBI.
The MVP voting in the AL is a close call. As of today, if I had a ballot, Dye would be the MVP, followed by: 2. Derek Jeter, 3. David Ortiz, 4. Travis Hafner, 5. Johan Santana, 6. Justin Morneau, 7. Joe Mauer, 8. Mariano Rivera, 9. Vladimir Guerrero and 10. Paul Konerko.
I don't know how one factors in position (SS, DH, SP, RP), but for now I'll just point out two features of your list.

(1) You have erroneously listed Derek Jeter second. Fun facts:
Travis Hafner: 0.439 OBP, 0.659 SLG
Manny Ramirez: 0.442 OBP, 0.628 SLG
Derek Jeter: 0.420 OBP, 0.484 SLG
Jason Giambi, DJ's fucking teammate: 0.413 OBP, 0.580 SLG

It is a close call, but its closeness has this much to do with Derek Jeter: zero.

(2) YOU FAILED TO LIST MANNY RAMIREZ IN YOUR TOP TEN.
Dye drove in a run against the Rays on Thursday, but the White Sox lost.
Um...okay. Wow, this is awkward. Seen any good movies lately? Uhh, I think I have to be somewhere now, but I'll talk to you later. No, I'll call you. Yeah, I can let myself out.

5 Comments:

Blogger robusteza said...

IMHO Arod is the most attractive man to ever play professional baseball. ESPN lists DJ at 6'3, 195; Arod at 6'3, 225. THAT IS 30 EXTRA POUNDS OF MAN.

Plus, did you already forget this? That shirt runs 25 pearls deep, son.

1:55 PM  
Blogger Emma said...

Ted can laugh now, but what he doesn't realize is that he will be receiving a small bottle of "Driven by Derek Jeter" for Christmas this year.

Seriously though, I'm not saying the MVP should be Jeter, but don't you think a team's place in the standings should count for at least something? Hafner is probably, with Manny, the best hitter in the AL, but his team is still 19 games out of first, so how valuable can he have been? (And I know A-Rod won with the Rangers in last place a few years ago... but I don't think he should have). I'd probably vote for Santana, myself.

11:22 PM  
Blogger robusteza said...

DJ's fragrance should be called Clutch. When you wear it, you give the impression of succeeding with the ladies, while in fact, you often screw it up. [snap]

I think team performance should play no role in deciding the MVP award. Being on a good team is adequately awarded by the WS trophy. The Indians are sucky, but they'd be (say) 30 games back without ol' Travis. Anyway why is DJ the presumptive Yankee candidate? His batting average? Giambi's OBP is very close and he's slugging much higher. Arod's very close to Jeter.

Still, I predict the biggest injustice will be dealt to Manny. Buddy's gonna get the shiggity shaft.

I hold pitchers to a higher standard because they already have the Cy, but Santana's been dominant enough that a vote for him is certainly justified. He's always throwing 7 innings and giving up only one run and striking out a bajllion along the way. That shit is valuable.

12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

why you gotta hate on jeet so much? talking about his clutch ability with the ladies.. CHIP ON YOUR SHOULDER??

6:34 PM  
Blogger robusteza said...

I'm so lonely.

2:13 PM  

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